Torrington, Wyoming 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

766
FXUS65 KCYS 191144
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
544 AM MDT Sat Jul 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered PM showers and thunderstorms are expected again
  today. A few storms will have the potential to become strong
  to severe, mainly in the NE Panhandle.

- Expect warm temperatures Sunday and Monday with more limited
  afternoon thunderstorm potential.

- The next surge of monsoon moisture is expected Tuesday through
  Thursday bringing higher chances for PM thunderstorms and near
  average temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 415 AM MDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Modest overrunning lift is continuing to produce a few isolated
showers lingering on radar early this morning. A little bit of
MUCAPE remains over most of the area this morning, so we still could
see a few rumbles of thunder for the next few hours, but overall
convection is on the downtrend. We will have a brief window of
clearing this morning before clouds increase once again with
afternoon convection. This looks to get off to a fairly early start,
kicking off in Albany/Laramie counties around noon. Mid to upper
level moisture will be slightly reduced compared to yesterday as a
dry slot apparent on GOES water vapor imagery creeps into the area.
However, surface moisture remains quite abundant east of the Laramie
range. While westerly winds are expected to push the dryline east
towards the WY/NE state line, the airmass to the west won`t actually
be all that dry. As a result, there will still be a marginal threat
for a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms west of the
dryline. The environment will be considerably more potent in the
Nebraska panhandle though, with ample surface moisture, steep lapse
rates, and strong deep layer shear. Thus, once storms cross over the
dryline, they may begin to gain supercellular characteristics just
as they did on Friday evening. The highest thunderstorm coverage is
generally between Laramie, Alliance, and Sidney as models indicate
decent isentropic lift developing over this corridor.
Elsewhere, storms will likely be more isolated, but there will
still be potential for a few to become strong to severe. Storms
should exit the area pretty quickly by around 7PM or so, but
there is a slim chance for a second round to kick off in the
evening with modest overrunning flow in the place of lingering
elevated instability. While the environment suggests this
possibility, hi-res models generally keep the area quiet after
the first round. Therefore, late evening PoPs are fairly slim.

On Sunday, the plume of monsoon moisture will get tilted more
towards the east and suppressed south of the WY/NE state line. In
its place, a dry fetch out of the subtropics will move in overhead.
At the same time, a weak surface low pulling out to the east over
the Dakotas will drag the dryline to around the eastern boundary of
the forecast area by midday Sunday. Most of the area will then
see a much drier boundary layer and sub-40F dewpoints. The only
exception remaining in the area of greater moisture looks to be
Cheyenne county. Overall thunderstorm coverage will then be much
lower on Sunday, with some virga showers possible over and near
the higher terrain. We may see a few storms kick off over the
dryline in Cheyenne county, but confidence is fairly low in that
scenario. More sunshine and a drier atmosphere will point to a
surge in the heat. Most of the High Plains will reach the 90s,
with the typical hot spots around Torrington, Scottsbluff, and
Chadron having a chance at 100F.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 415 AM MDT Sat Jul 19 2025

A typical monsoon weather pattern will dominate most of the long
term period. Ensembles depict a strong ridge setting up over the
central/southern Plains, with broad troughing digging into the
Pacific northwest early in the week, and ejecting into the northern
Plains by midweek. The digging upper level trough will give the flow
aloft more of a southerly component on Monday and advect better mid
to upper level moisture northward. Expect to see a little higher
thunderstorm coverage on Monday, but surface moisture remains mostly
unimpressive. This should change on Tuesday into Wednesday as an
ejecting upper level low over the northern Plains drops a cool
front and surface high pressure to the south. With strong
moisture continuing to push northward out of the monsoon region
in between the southern Plains ridge and broad west coast upper
level low, thunderstorm chances look to climb higher for Tuesday
through Thursday. While it is still quite early, Wednesday
looks like the best day of the week for rainfall potential.
These days also look a little cooler with near average
temperatures. After slightly squashing the ridge midweek,
ensemble guidance is in fairly good agreement showing the ridge
strengthening again late in the week but with a more westward
position of the axis. Dry subtropical air is likely to return
Friday over the area while another warming trend begins. There
is potential for a fairly potent heat wave over most of the
Rockies next weekend as the powerful ridge continues to amplify
while suppressing monsoon moisture to the south.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 534 AM MDT Sat Jul 19 2025

Current satellite imagery shows low clouds or fog just outside
of KAIA and KSNY this morning. This may spill in and out of the
terminals over the next 2-3 hours, possibly producing IFR
conditions, but confidence is not very high. Brief MVFR VIS is
also possible at KBFF. This will improve mid morning.

Afternoon thunderstorms are expected once again. Activity will
begin early afternoon near KLAR and KCYS, and then spread
eastward through the early evening hours. Most terminals will
have a chance for thunderstorm impacts including gusty winds,
lightning, and a brief visibility drop. IFR VIS and large hail
are also possible in the Nebraska panhandle. A few isolated
showers/storms may linger into the evening, but most activity
should conclude by around 01z.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MN
LONG TERM...MN
AVIATION...MN