Torrington, Wyoming 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

894
FXUS65 KCYS 142305
AFDCYS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
405 PM MST Wed Jan 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A widespread strong to locally damaging wind event remains on
  track for much of the area, with the strongest winds Thursday
  night through Friday afternoon.

- Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are expected
  daily from Thursday onward due to gusty winds, low humidity,
  and dry fuels.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 222 PM MST Wed Jan 14 2026

Before we talk about the main weather story that will start in the
short term and continue into the extended, lets first take a look at
precipitation chances and temperatures. Initially, the upper level
pattern will be dominated by ridging that pushes into the region,
keeping precipitation chances at a minimum under a dry air mass.
Switching to temperatures, with 700mb temperatures in the 0 to +2C
range, highs today are expected to top out in the 40s west of I-25
and the low to mid 50s east of the corridor, warmest across the
Nebraska Panhandle. Highs slightly cooler Thursday with cooler 700mb
temps pushing in. Lows tonight will dip down into the upper 20s to
low 30s for many locations across the CWA and colder Thursday night
with lows tanking into the mid teens and low 20s.

Now for the main event, winds, yup, you read that right. Expect
winds to really intensify Thursday evening for many locations in the
CWA east of I-25 as a deep trough dives south out of Canada. This
will interact with a dominate ridge across the West Coast, keeping
strong northerly flow into our region at all levels (250mb to
700mb). This will guide a series, two, of shortwaves that will dive
south into our CWA, with the first one tonight. This will be the
weaker of the two and ahead of the main trough. The surface gradient
will tighten tonight across the Laramie Range and surface wind
speeds increase, especially for Bordeaux along I-25. With the lack
of support aloft with this first shortwave, topography and gradient
will cause the winds to strengthen as in-house guidance suggests
probabilities of high winds near 40%. So, westerly gusts up to 55
mph are possible in this area through Thursday morning. Our CWA will
become sandwiched between the ridge across the West Coast and the
deep trough, as mentioned earlier, diving south out of Canada. As
such, the flow aloft will be aligned north/south and will guide a
more potent shortwave that pushes south along the western flank of
the deep trough to our east right into our region. So, with all the
ingredients coming together for this event Thursday night, expect
the winds to really ramp up and become widespread, even across the
Nebraska Panhandle, with west-northwest gusts to 70 mph and we are
continuing to message this with a slue of High Wind Watches.
Precipitation chances, the lesser story, will remain meager as these
shortwaves slide through due to limited moisture. Even with this
said, some of the newer guidance are increasing chances of
precipitation across the higher terrain, and as such POPs have been
increased with this forecast package for the Laramie and Snowy
Ranges Thursday evening. Dont expect a whole lot of accumulations,
generally a trace or less.

Another threat that bears watching for Thursday afternoon and hasn`t
been discussed yet, what are the fire weather concern? With ample
dry conditions, minimum RH values dipping to near 20% and abundant
dry fuels, the threat is there and is something that will be closely
monitored. Stay tuned...

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 222 PM MST Wed Jan 14 2026

Over the long term forecast the ridge axis wobbles further west
as a upper level low drops into the eastern Northern Plains/
Western Great lakes area. This will send a trough to pass
through Nebraska tightening our pressure gradient Thursday into
Friday. The 500mb jetstream is expected to drop further south
with this trough to give us upper level support for enhanced
surface winds. The surface winds are expected to be rather gusty
as the 700mb jets ramps up between 70 to 80kts early Friday
morning. The LREF paints a swath of 30 to 40 percent probability
to exceed 75kts at the 700mb level across the Panhandle. When
computing the probs for exceeding 80kts that swath drops down to
10 to 20 percent. Looking at the global models omega fields,
there is some moderate to strong subsidence covering the
majority of the area east of I-25 in Southeast Wyoming into the
Nebraska Panhandle. Given the level of certainty in high winds.
The winds were increased with a blend of NBM90 and GFS20. This
should more accurate capture the areas of potential high wind.
Friday morning looks to be the timing of the strongest winds
with gusts reaching up to 65 to 75 mph in the Panhandle
depending on the where the 80kt jetstreak sets up. NAEFS also
continues to show PWAT values in the 10th Climatological
percentile across the far eastern edge of Southeast Wyoming and
most of the Nebraska Panhandle indicating a very dry airmass. RH
values look to drop into the teens by Friday afternoon with
dewpoints in the negatives. Given the low RH and the potential
for borderline Hurricane force winds, elevated fire weather to
red flag conditions may be present Friday afternoon. However,
behind the faster winds lies an arctic airmass that drops 700mb
temperatures from 4C to -4C Friday. This drop in 700mb
temperatures will be responsible for dropping the high
temperatures into the 30`s on Friday. 700mb temperatures do
gradually warm back up into the 3 to 4C range Sunday into Monday
as the ridge axis wobbles back eastward. However, the region
will be lacking any significant moisture through the long term.
Long range ensembles show dry conditions lasting potentially
until the 21st of January.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 404 PM MST Wed Jan 14 2026

Primarily VFR conditions expected across southeast Wyoming and
western Nebraska. Some lower-level clouds are slowly sliding
southeast across the Nebraska Panhandle. Expecting 7,000ft
ceilings for the next 2 to 3 hours before clear skies return.
Gusty conditions expected overnight and into the day tomorrow,
with very gusty conditions returning tomorrow afternoon and
evening.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...High Wind Watch from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon
     for WYZ101-102.
     High Wind Watch from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon
     for WYZ107-108-118-119.
     High Wind Watch from late Thursday night through Friday
     afternoon for WYZ110.
     High Wind Watch from late Thursday night through Friday
     evening for WYZ116-117.
NE...High Wind Watch from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon
     for NEZ002-095.
     High Wind Watch from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon
     for NEZ003-019>021-054-055-096.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RZ
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...